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Step 10 Assess the Confidence:
Below the Step 10 Methodology is described. See also Software Step 10.
The Confidence Rating should be determined by the inspector and the Materials Corrosion Engineer and should reflect their confidence in the assessment of the StF (Step 7) and RL (Step 8), i.e., the predicted degradation. Inspection data, judgement and experience should be used to establish Confidence.
Three Key Questions should be considered:
- Stability and controllability of the DM.
- Number and reliability/quality of inspections.
- Reliability of process (IOWs) monitoring.
IMS uses Questionnaires to determine the Confidence rating. These vary, depending on the applicable DM. The tables below give general guidance per Key Question (one for AR DMs and on for NAR DMs). Additionally, Guidance per Special Emphasis and Guidance per DM give more guidance where required (see a summary also here below).
For background information on Confidence, refer to Risk Based Inspection (RBI) - Theory.
Specific Guidance Summary
Specific guidance summary - Confidence:
DM / Special Emphasis Component | Description |
---|---|
Confidence is not applicable. | |
Confidence is not applicable. | |
Confidence is evaluated in the StF section. | |
Addition 4th question: Has Corrosion assessment been carried out? | |
| |
| |
Additional guidance to answer the key questions. | |
No Confidence assessment. | |
Additional guidance to answer the key questions. | |
Additional guidance to answer the key questions. | |
Additional guidance to answer the key questions. | |
Additional guidance to answer the key questions. | |
Confidence Assessment for AR DMs general guidance
Confidence Assessment for AR DMs general guidance:
Key Questions | Main Input | Guidance |
---|---|---|
DM is stable and can be properly controlled. | Corrosion Engineer | A corrosion mechanism is considered stable when it meets two conditions:
A corrosion mechanism is considered properly controlled if the process conditions are such that CRs remain low, or if adequate methods are applied to reduce the CRs to tolerable levels. For example, acid corrosion rates in a hydro-processing reactor effluent stream can be controlled if the system remains dry (no water condensation), or if wash water is used to dilute the acids and maintain a high pH. In most cases the DM is both stable and can be properly controlled. In undefined situations, and the corrosion engineer needs to make a judgement as to which of the two parts of the question is more important. For example, Amine corrosion of carbon steel will proceed at an almost constant rate over time, which means it is stable but can be difficult to control. In that case, the use of corrosion inhibitors or a change in the amine composition (reduction in heat stable salts) can be used to control the CRs. |
Multiple reliable inspections have been carried out. | Inspection Engineer | Have multiple inspection been carried out? Multiple means 3 or more. An intermediate rating can be given for 2 to 3 inspections. Single or no inspections receive a rating of “No”. Were those inspections reliable?
Note: The API definition of Inspection Effectiveness can also be used. Two Usually Effective inspections equals one Highly Effective inspection; Two Fairly Effective inspections equals one Usually Effective inspection; etc. (The required Inspection Effectiveness is calculated in Step 11.) In short: A "Yes" confirms that the controls in place work to control or predict the behavior of the DM. |
Relevant process parameters are reliably monitored. | Operator / Process Engineer and the Corrosion Engineer | The corrosion engineer needs to determine which process parameters are relevant to the DM. This may include temperature, flow velocity, concentration of corrosive species, pH, etc. The operator/process engineer needs to evaluate if those parameters are reliably and consistently monitored, for example whether the right Equipment, sampling, and data analysis tools are employed or not. With reliable and consistent monitoring, it is assumed that:
Requirements for monitoring are generally specified in the CL where they apply, not where they are measured or where the field instrument is located. For example, the temperature of one heat exchanger in a train of several exchangers may be deduced from the overall temperature change over the full train. Some process parameters may be intrinsic to the process and therefore may not vary much from a given design value. For example, the hydrogen pressure and the temperature across a hydrotreaters reactor do not change significantly over the run length. Then, if the process operates efficiently, it can be safely assumed that such parameters as hydrogen pressure and temperature are close to their design values. Therefore, higher confidence may result. Note: Variables which Operations cannot control (change) or Process Engineer/Technologist cannot influence are not part of the CL’s IOW (e.g., influence of yearly precipitation on CUI). |
Confidence Assessment for NAR DMs general guidance
Confidence Assessment for NAR DMs (SCC, HIC, etc.) general guidance:
Key Questions | Main Input | Guidance |
---|---|---|
Degradation mechanism can be properly controlled. | Corrosion Engineer | Stability for NAR DM can only be achieved through material selection and IOW control. When either of the two is not met, they can occur rapidly or instantaneously. The control of the NAR DMs can be affected in two ways:
For example, the chloride stress corrosion cracking (Cl-SCC) of austenitic stainless steels can occur in a chloride containing aqueous environment. The duplex stainless steels with low nickel content or alloys with greater than 42% nickel are generally immune to Cl-SCC. Alternatively, the DM can be controlled by lowering the chloride concentrations and temperature, or by increasing the pH i.e., the environment control. In some conditions, it will not be completely clear if the DM can be fully controlled under all circumstances. E.g., Chloride SCC in a non-temperature-controlled system. In these cases, the corrosion engineer needs to make a judgement as to whether the mechanism can be controlled. |
Relevant process parameters are reliably monitored. | Operator / Process Engineer and the Corrosion Engineer | Same as for AR DMs. Control of IOW as a Barrier is generally more important for NAR DM. |
Reliable inspections were carried out. | Inspection Engineer | One main difference in the treatment of the NAR DMs and the AR DMs in the context of RBI, is the emphasis on inspections for the latter and the emphasis on monitoring for the former. Reliable inspections on NAR contribute less to the overall outcome of the Confidence Assessment. Very few NAR DMs proceed at a relatively low rate, and their progress can conceivably be monitored by inspection. Hydrogen induced cracking (HIC) falls under this category. Other mechanisms proceed at a relatively high rate compared to AR DMs, and inspections are much less reliable to monitor their progress. For example, sulphide stress cracking of high strength materials. |